15.07.2021

According to Holon IQ, the education market will reach at least $10 billion by 2030. These and other predictions are discussed in their research article entitled Education in 2030. The $10 Trillion Dollar Question. Five Scenarios for the Future of Learning and Talent. 

Since 2018, Holon IQ has functioned as a global market consultation source, helping to connect ideas, people and capital in order to drive innovation, lifelong learning processes and conscious, informed decision making. 

The purpose of this study was to delve into the 4 drivers of the global expansion of education and identify the 5 scenarios for the future of learning and talent. This was done by compiling and cross-referencing data obtained from databases provided by organizations such as the World Bank, OECD and UNESCO. 

The first consideration made is about the likely growth of what they call the global education market, according to Holon IQ, by 2030 this will reach 10 billion dollars. This is explained by the rate of population growth and the greater insertion of the population in the development markets. 

Some interesting facts in this regard: 

• In the next decade there will be 350 million high school graduates and almost 800 million primary and secondary school graduates.
• On average, it is necessary to increase the number of teachers by 1.5 million annually.
• Asia and Africa have been identified as the drivers of expansion. 

To arrive at the predictions and results presented, 4 main drivers were identified, which they consider could, now and in the future, shape the educational arena. These are: 

 

1. Globalization and growth.

If emerging markets continue to develop and strengthen their institutions and improve their conditions, it is very likely that they will continue to be the growth engine of the world economy, in addition to becoming destinations of interest for both tourism and investment. 

2. Changes in the world population 

This is an important factor to consider. Every day the world’s population grows by approximately 200,000 inhabitants. It is estimated that by the year 2030 there will be about 1 billion people.

3. The future of work and skills

Technological advances and automation are creating a great deal of uncertainty in the workplace.

4. Technological advances 

The progressive changes in the ways of working, taking into account the previous factor, will make it essential to remodel at the same time aspects of the educational system and learning in general.

This research, finally, yields the 5 possible scenarios for the future of education and talent, whose occurrence depends on the different possible combinations of key drivers, both of those already mentioned and all the others that were not considered. The scenarios, or possible futures, presented are:

• Education as usual

There is a high probability that by 2030 there will be more educated and skilled labor contributing to global productivity and income equality.  In this scenario, being educated will continue to be the most reliable way to gain employment and stability, however, due to the changing context, it is very likely that there will be a crisis in traditional institutions as they are not prepared to face the challenges of the moment. 

• Regional growth

It is expected that in the next 10 years the more developed countries will have a crisis both because of their slowing economic growth and aging workforce, while the developing countries will have the largest share of the working population, implying the need to facilitate education and create jobs for their growing population.

A regional unification of world economies in the future is highly probable. In this case, cooperation between countries will be critical in alleviating the lack or shortage of human capital.

• Global giants

Globalization, by then, will have integrated all the countries of the world to an unprecedented extent, barriers in international trade will be barely noticeable, in a context, it is hoped, that will promote trade integration, competition and world growth. Intergovernmental organizations, then, will have a fundamental role to play in issues such as international law, security and trade.

• Peer-to-Peer

The high likelihood that trust in large companies and institutions will continue to become more widespread may lead to a scenario in which peer-to-peer economics is the general rule, for living, working, learning and earning money. Given this scenario, there would be a decrease in transaction and connectivity costs, as there would no longer be, or very little, intermediation in most economic sectors.

• The robot revolution

The advancement and applications of artificial intelligence are expected to free up human capital, which can be devoted to higher value-added activities; this will be made possible by automation in many industries of routine tasks. In this context it will be even more relevant to drive overall productivity growth.

By Sofía Acevedo Henao
Innovation and Knowledge Transfer Area
C-Transmedia